Terence Bell: Despite signs of growth, oversupply and realigning fundamentals still holding tech metals market back

Asian Metal: Good Morning Mr. Bell, thank you for granting us this interview. Could you please give us an introduction to your company and yourself?

Terence Bell: Strategic Metal Investment Ltd. (SMI Ltd.) was founded in 2009 as a diversified minor metals supply chain company.

While we started with a focus on helping clients ensure a stable supply of competitively priced electronic metals - germanium, gallium, indium and tellurium - we have grown to encompass a wide range of minor metals and related chemicals. We now have operations in Canada, China, Korea and India.

Personally, I began in the rare earths industry over 10 years ago and shifted into minor and electronic metals with the founding of SMI Ltd.

Asian Metal: What does Strategic Metals Investments specialize in? And perhaps, what can market participants look forward to in regards to future developments at SMI?

TB: SMI Ltd. is most actively involved in the germanium market and, since 2010, we have been producing high purity germanium dioxide at our facility in China.

We are always working to be more competitive in this area, and recently have been more active in the secondary market for germanium containing scrap materials.

This year, partly in response to slow demand in metals markets, we have been working with end-users to develop supply chains for minor metal-related specialty chemicals. There is growing demand for such products, in particular, in the oil and gas and steel-coating sectors.

SMI Ltd. has also recently added platinum group metals to our inventory due to demand from Asian clients.

Asian Metal: The Germanium market has had a surprisingly quiet year. With the stockpiling that occurred earlier in the year, most thought prices would be much more active. What are your current thoughts on this market and its projection for the rest of the year?

TB: It has been a relatively quiet year and a half for germanium. When the price rebounded in 2013 many consumers were wondering what was driving the price up.

What we have seen over the last two years is germanium prices decoupling away from demand for infra-red(IR) optics.

IR optics had driven the market for germanium for a long period prior to that, so a drop in consumption was expected to result in lower prices. However, the decline in demand has mostly been replaced by stockpiling and investment demand for germanium.

The relatively small size of the germanium market makes investment and stockpile purchases that much more effective in influencing prices.

At the moment, there does not seem to be a major factor from either the demand or supply-side that would shake the price from its current equilibrium. However, as we in the minor metals industry know well, it doesn't take anything more than a policy change, the closure of a major facility or a large stockpile purchase to change things in an instant.

Asian Metal: On the other hand, gallium prices were unsurprisingly low throughout this year. What expectations do you have for future market trends? Most are predicting healthy growing in GaAs and GaN demand, when might that affect pricing?

TB: The gallium market has changed significantly over the past couple years. Great expectations for demand from the light emitting diode (LED) sector, along with steady growth in the integrated circuit market, pre-empted huge capacity expansions.

The market will need time to catch up, and recently it has shown some positive signs, but the market as a whole has matured. The days of volatile gallium prices over USD500 per kilogram are probably behind us.

Asian Metal: Exchanges in China have become an increasingly attention grabbing aspect of the market. Some expect their impact on supply could be a major market force in the future. What are your thoughts? Is there any limitations? What kind of impact could we expect?

TB: The entry and influence of investment demand has, in my opinion, been the most important development affecting minor metal markets over the past couple of years.

That said, it is difficult to see this area continuing to grow at the pace it has to date.

First, the illiquid and technical nature of many minor metals does lend them well to exchange trading. Second, there are many unanswered questions about the structure and sustainability of the most influential minor metal exchange, the Fanya Metal Exchange, whose activities to date have been more akin to a stockpile than a metal exchange.

There will continue to be investor interest in minor metals, but I do not expect private investors will be a drivingforce in the markets.

Asian Metal: What are your expectations for 2015? Will the tech metals market experience a turn around, or will the teetering global recession hold prices down?

TB: We are still in a recovery period following the most recent commodities cycle. Prices for those minor metals with strong demand fundamentals have been drawn downdue to increased production capacity, while others are just suffering from soft demand in a recovering global economy.

Without a new technology driving demand or a disruption on the supply-side, it will just take more time for demand growth to catch up with current production. For the time being, it is good to be a consumer.

Asian Metal: Thank you very much Terence, we wish you and your business the best.

TB: Thank you. I appreciate the opportunity.