Rajat: Stainless scrap prices likely to rise with limited mark-up in remainder of 2014

Asian Metal: Mr. Maheshwari, thanks for agreeing to the interview. What about your current stainless scrap export market? I've learnt that India is your main export target, so has demand there released dramatically after the general election?

Rajat: It’s my pleasure. Currently the overall stainless scrap market is running sluggishly as there are too many holidays in Asian and European countries. Besides, since it is the traditional off-season, manufacturing industry is performing weakly, preventing the demand for stainless scrap from releasing.

Besides exporting to Southeast Asian countries such as India and Japan, I also export materials to some European countries. However, the sales performance remains unsatisfactory.

In the meantime, India is my major export target, but buyers there are not active in placing orders right now. Although the local steel demand is expected to increase after the new government’s infrastructure spending policies are put in place, local government has restrictions on imports as well, and thus the export business there remains unclear. Considering there will be holidays there at the beginning of September, I think demand for stainless scrap may increase a little after the holiday and local importers will begin to purchase materials.

Asian Metal: The price of the raw material-LME nickel has continued to fluctuate recently and lacked the power to go up significantly, so do you think the stainless scrap export price will rise in the near future?

Rajat: Yes, the price of nickel on the LME at one point hit a historic high in May but returned to fluctuating when it entered June, heightening stainless scrap participants’ cautious attitudes.

Personally, I am optimistic about the market outlook for the remainder of this year as the coming “Golden September” and “Silver October” stand among the traditional peak seasons for stainless scrap on the international market, and there are fewer holidays during this period, so demand is likely to release further, leading to a price rise.

Nevertheless, considering that demand is not so strong and likely to be less than it has been during the peak season in previous years, the price will be powerless to increase dramatically and I guess that for 304-type will reach no more than USD1,900/t CIF Asian ports this year.

Asian Metal: How is the supply and demand in the spot market for stainless scrap? Do the persistent tensions between Ukraine and Russia have a significant influence on the nickel and stainless scrap markets?

Rajat: The steel industry overall is facing oversupply. For myself, I mainly purchase materials within Thailand and export them to Southeast Asia and some European countries after further processing.

With the depreciation of THB against the USD, I am trying to reduce the purchase price, but unfortunately, most of my suppliers in Thailand refuse to accept the lower prices and they are holding wait-and-see attitudes towards the coming market. I guess it will take around two weeks for them to accept the lower prices, and thus I do not plan to cut the export quotations within this period. Currently I am still quoting USD1,850/t CIF India for 304 stainless scrap, which is unchanged compared to that of last week.

The overall demand for stainless scrap remains insufficient given the gloomy international economy, and some of my regular customers have either postponed purchase plans or cut purchase volumes significantly, so the business is hard to run.

Actually, the tension between Ukraine and Russia will mainly influence the nickel supply within European countries and it has had little influence on my business, since my major export target is Southeast Asian markets. However, the overall tight supply may result in a macro-effect on stainless scrap participants’ sentiments. This means that, if the nickel supply remains short, stainless scrap suppliers will lift their quotations tentatively.

Asian Metal: Do you have any advice for the stainless scrap players? What do you think of the market outlook in the remainder of 2014?

Rajat: I think the most important thing for stainless scrap traders is to guarantee the quality of products, so as to establish the long-term cooperation of customers.

As for the market outlook in the remainder of this year, I hold an optimistic attitude and believe the price is likely to rise by around USD50/t in the coming months, but it will take time. Currently, I am supplementing my inventory very gradually. Besides, I guess the market in H2 will be better than that of H1.

Asian Metal: Thank you very much Mr. Rajat, we wish you all the best in your new venture.